{"F": {"ts_code": "688013.SH", "name": "天臣医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.59, "pe_ttm": 39.35, "pb": 4.0331, "dv_ttm": 5.2338, "total_mv": 199561.6204, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.3, 57.5, 57.3, 56.1, 58.5, 63.9], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.1, 2.3, 2.5, 2.7, 3.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [12.2, 8.5, 8.5, 8.8, 9.0, 14.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 57.5, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 19.1, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.7, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.03, "capex_dep": 7.42, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 25.5, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": 252.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": 25.4, "rev_yoy": -27.4, "np_yoy": -71.5, "np_vol": 21.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["无源产品", 17.0], ["无源产品：微创腔镜类", 10.0], ["无源产品-微创腔镜类", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 208.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.3, "ret_ytd": -48.0, "ret_pivot": 110.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": -6.6, "ret_120": -38.4, "ret_250": -44.1, "mdd_250": -66.2, "vol_250": 46.5, "pos_52w": 37.3}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 69, "hard": 51, "bondness": 80}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 253%、股息率 5.2%、营收 3 年复合 12.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 32%、毛利率 57.5% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 7.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 37%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -7% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "天臣医疗:PE 比行业中位高 0.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点。"]}}