{"F": {"ts_code": "688012.SH", "name": "中微公司", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 335.42, "pe_ttm": 75.9391, "pb": 10.6959, "dv_ttm": 0.0685, "total_mv": 32127946.4266, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 43.4, 45.7, 45.8, 41.1, 39.2], "rev_series": [22.7, 31.1, 47.4, 62.6, 90.7, 123.8], "np_series": [4.9, 10.1, 11.7, 17.9, 16.2, 21.1], "roe_series": [12.1, 11.0, 8.0, 10.7, 8.6, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 141.2, "np_ttm": 42.3, "ocf_ttm": 27.8, "fcf_ttm": 15.4, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 43.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 8.1, "npm_median": 24.6, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.6, "fix_assets": 40.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 10.7, "capex_dep": 7.09, "interest_debt": 9.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 19.7, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 23.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 37.7, "np_cagr3": 21.8, "rev_yoy": 34.9, "np_yoy": 300.2, "np_vol": 38.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 27, "fwd_pe": 70.9, "fwd_pe2": 56.4, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 2.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.5, "ret_prev2_year": 23.5, "ret_ytd": 83.5, "ret_pivot": 328.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": 59.9, "ret_250": 137.3, "mdd_250": -34.3, "vol_250": 65.6, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 66, "hard": 17, "bondness": 10}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 75.9 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(27 篇研报)前瞻 PE 70.9 倍,次年 56.4 倍,PEG 2.73。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.4%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 7.09 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 137%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 11% / 60%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "中微公司:PE 比行业中位低 5.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}