{"F": {"ts_code": "688011.SH", "name": "新光光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 77.78, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.4567, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 773911.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.9, 47.7, 26.1, 35.2, 31.6, 37.9], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.2], "np_series": [0.2, 0.0, -0.2, -0.4, -0.7, -0.4], "roe_series": [2.0, 0.1, -2.0, -3.4, -6.1, -3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 35.2, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -13.7, "npm_median": -25.1, "roe_median": -3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.46, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 18.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 200.7, "np_yoy": -63.0, "np_vol": 564.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["研发产品收入", 19.0], ["研发产品", 19.0], ["批产产品销售", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 316.7, "ret_prev2_year": -35.2, "ret_ytd": 21.8, "ret_pivot": 554.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": 31.9, "ret_120": 18.4, "ret_250": 83.0, "mdd_250": -27.0, "vol_250": 66.6, "pos_52w": 88.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 29, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 83%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 32% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "新光光电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}