{"F": {"ts_code": "688010.SH", "name": "福光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.1, "pe_ttm": 141.5778, "pb": 2.3448, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 403009.616, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.3, 26.2, 22.4, 20.4, 24.1, 20.2], "rev_series": [5.9, 6.7, 7.8, 5.9, 6.2, 6.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.3, -0.7, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [2.8, 2.5, 1.6, -3.9, 0.6, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.4, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 22.4, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.6, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 0.27, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 12.8, "debt_ratio": 34.4, "debt_mv": 17.6, "payout": 94.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.7, "np_cagr3": -24.4, "rev_yoy": -12.5, "np_yoy": 55.0, "np_vol": 151.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["非定制光学镜头", 29.0], ["定制产品", 11.0], ["光学元件及其他", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": 18.5, "ret_ytd": -19.3, "ret_pivot": 93.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.1, "ret_60": -37.0, "ret_120": -14.9, "ret_250": -27.9, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 70.7, "pos_52w": 49.7}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 47, "hard": 41, "bondness": 68}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 141.6 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 12.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 141.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -37% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "福光股份:PE 比行业中位高 80.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点。"]}}