{"F": {"ts_code": "688008.SH", "name": "澜起科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 187.7, "pe_ttm": 74.5297, "pb": 10.6476, "dv_ttm": 0.3114, "total_mv": 22909498.26, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.3, 48.1, 46.4, 58.9, 58.1, 62.2], "rev_series": [18.2, 25.6, 36.7, 22.9, 36.4, 54.6], "np_series": [11.0, 8.3, 13.0, 4.5, 14.1, 22.4], "roe_series": [14.3, 10.1, 14.2, 4.5, 13.1, 18.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 61.6, "np_ttm": 30.7, "ocf_ttm": 22.9, "fcf_ttm": 18.8, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 58.1, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -25.8, "npm_median": 35.4, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 14.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.65, "capex_dep": 4.36, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 7.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": 19.8, "rev_yoy": 26.7, "np_yoy": 72.3, "np_vol": 95.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 65.9, "fwd_pe2": 50.3, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 2.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["内存接口芯片", 31.0], ["互连类芯片", 31.0], ["津逮服务器平台", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.4, "ret_prev2_year": 16.4, "ret_ytd": 59.9, "ret_pivot": 295.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -17.8, "ret_120": 28.5, "ret_250": 85.1, "mdd_250": -41.9, "vol_250": 75.5, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 64, "hard": 10, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 74.5 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(16 篇研报)前瞻 PE 65.9 倍,次年 50.3 倍,PEG 2.13。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.1%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 4.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 74.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 85%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -18% / 28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "澜起科技:PE 比行业中位低 7.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}