{"F": {"ts_code": "688002.SH", "name": "睿创微纳", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 180.45, "pe_ttm": 41.3229, "pb": 10.6043, "dv_ttm": 0.2079, "total_mv": 8400844.3365, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.8, 58.3, 46.6, 50.0, 50.3, 52.5], "rev_series": [15.6, 17.8, 26.5, 35.6, 43.2, 63.0], "np_series": [5.8, 4.6, 3.1, 5.0, 5.7, 11.2], "roe_series": [22.2, 14.4, 8.4, 11.3, 11.1, 18.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 81.6, "np_ttm": 20.3, "ocf_ttm": 29.7, "fcf_ttm": 22.4, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 50.3, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -16.2, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.7, "fix_assets": 23.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 10.37, "capex_dep": 2.01, "interest_debt": 12.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 34.5, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 15.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 33.6, "np_cagr3": 53.1, "rev_yoy": 72.8, "np_yoy": 258.8, "np_vol": 48.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 34.1, "fwd_pe2": 25.5, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 1.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["红外热成像设备", 48.0], ["红外热成像业务", 48.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["微波射频业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 115.9, "ret_prev2_year": 6.8, "ret_ytd": 79.6, "ret_pivot": 591.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 38.3, "ret_120": 74.7, "ret_250": 154.7, "mdd_250": -23.7, "vol_250": 57.3, "pos_52w": 97.5}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 61, "hard": 30, "bondness": 8}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 259%,PE TTM 41.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 34.1 倍,PEG 1.00。", "自由现金流 22.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 34%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.3%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.01 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 155%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 98%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 38% / 75%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "睿创微纳:PE 比行业中位低 40.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}