{"F": {"ts_code": "605599.SH", "name": "菜百股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.9, "pe_ttm": 10.4296, "pb": 2.6201, "dv_ttm": 5.2349, "total_mv": 1158888.922, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.9, 11.3, 11.2, 10.7, 8.9, 8.3], "rev_series": [70.7, 104.1, 109.9, 165.5, 202.3, 288.2], "np_series": [3.6, 3.6, 4.6, 7.1, 7.2, 11.3], "roe_series": [16.9, 13.6, 13.9, 19.7, 18.5, 26.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 346.1, "np_ttm": 11.1, "ocf_ttm": 10.8, "fcf_ttm": 10.6, "fcf_yield": 9.2, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 10.7, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 18.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.62, "capex_dep": 1.31, "interest_debt": 36.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 49.5, "debt_mv": 31.7, "payout": 76.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 37.9, "np_cagr3": 35.0, "rev_yoy": 38.0, "np_yoy": -4.8, "np_vol": 24.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 52.0, "earn_yield": 9.6, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.1, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.3, "ret_prev2_year": -22.4, "ret_ytd": -4.4, "ret_pivot": 79.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -35.9, "ret_250": 1.1, "mdd_250": -50.4, "vol_250": 44.4, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 42, "hard": 2, "bondness": 64}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 77%、股息率 5.2%、营收 3 年复合 37.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 1.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.4 倍 粗算,约 52%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 3% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "菜百股份:PE 比行业中位低 47.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}