{"F": {"ts_code": "605598.SH", "name": "上海港湾", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "其他专业工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210917", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.23, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.9433, "dv_ttm": 0.3116, "total_mv": 631798.3378, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.3, 30.2, 36.3, 34.3, 29.6, 23.3], "rev_series": [7.9, 7.3, 8.9, 12.8, 13.0, 15.7], "np_series": [1.1, 0.6, 1.6, 1.7, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [13.3, 5.5, 10.6, 10.5, 5.2, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.0, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 30.2, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.6, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.94, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 25.6, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 29.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.0, "np_cagr3": -25.2, "rev_yoy": -9.1, "np_yoy": -145.6, "np_vol": 75.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 75.9, "fwd_pe2": 55.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 2.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["地基处理", 25.0], ["桩基工程", 13.0], ["新能源基建", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 212.4, "ret_prev2_year": -15.7, "ret_ytd": -62.2, "ret_pivot": 61.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -27.2, "ret_120": -45.4, "ret_250": -5.6, "mdd_250": -68.7, "vol_250": 69.3, "pos_52w": 34.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 25, "bondness": 12}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.2%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.2%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 35%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -27% / -45%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "上海港湾:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}