{"F": {"ts_code": "605589.SH", "name": "圣泉集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "合成树脂", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.86, "pe_ttm": 32.7348, "pb": 2.8889, "dv_ttm": 1.7614, "total_mv": 3119765.895, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.2, 24.1, 21.1, 23.0, 23.6, 25.2], "rev_series": [83.2, 88.2, 96.0, 91.2, 100.2, 109.4], "np_series": [8.8, 6.9, 7.0, 7.9, 8.7, 10.1], "roe_series": [16.8, 10.2, 8.6, 9.0, 9.0, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 116.7, "np_ttm": 9.5, "ocf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_ttm": -13.2, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 23.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -16.2, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.2, "fix_assets": 74.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.89, "capex_dep": 1.76, "interest_debt": 51.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 41.3, "debt_mv": 16.4, "payout": 52.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": 12.7, "rev_yoy": 13.7, "np_yoy": -10.7, "np_vol": 13.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["合成树脂及衍生品", 47.0], ["合成树脂及复合材料", 47.0], ["生物质产品", 5.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.5, "ret_prev2_year": 7.7, "ret_ytd": 33.3, "ret_pivot": 127.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.0, "ret_60": -38.9, "ret_120": 10.8, "ret_250": 16.2, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 61.6, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 48, "hard": 61, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.7 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.76 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -39% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "圣泉集团:PE 比行业中位低 8.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}