{"F": {"ts_code": "605588.SH", "name": "冠石科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.06, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5821, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 330179.403, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.7, 13.2, 14.9, 15.8, 10.7, 5.4], "rev_series": [11.1, 14.0, 11.1, 8.9, 13.6, 13.7], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 0.8, 0.5, -0.2, -0.7], "roe_series": [27.5, 15.1, 8.4, 5.1, -1.5, -7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.0, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -7.0, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.9, "fix_assets": 15.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.58, "capex_dep": 2.89, "interest_debt": 13.8, "debt_ebitda": 25.6, "debt_ratio": 66.6, "debt_mv": 41.8, "payout": 10.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.8, "np_yoy": -277.8, "np_vol": 133.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["半导体显示器件", 45.0], ["特种胶粘材料", 3.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.1, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 29.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": -19.4, "ret_120": -17.1, "ret_250": -20.3, "mdd_250": -45.9, "vol_250": 52.2, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 89, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 25.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 2.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -19% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "冠石科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.5个百分点。"]}}