{"F": {"ts_code": "605577.SH", "name": "龙版传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "教育出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.55, "pe_ttm": 37.8253, "pb": 1.7666, "dv_ttm": 1.0289, "total_mv": 691111.042, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.7, 44.2, 43.2, 43.2, 43.8, 41.6], "rev_series": [15.4, 17.9, 18.1, 18.4, 16.6, 15.2], "np_series": [1.8, 4.4, 4.8, 3.4, 2.0, 2.2], "roe_series": [7.9, 16.5, 15.0, 9.7, 5.5, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.5, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 43.2, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 18.7, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.7, "fix_assets": 21.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.77, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 32.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.6, "np_cagr3": -22.3, "rev_yoy": 5.6, "np_yoy": -34.5, "np_vol": 66.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.2, "ret_prev2_year": -38.0, "ret_ytd": 20.4, "ret_pivot": 29.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 63.7, "ret_60": 63.7, "ret_120": 18.0, "ret_250": 12.7, "mdd_250": -43.1, "vol_250": 41.3, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 63, "hard": 60, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.8 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.2%、固定资产占比 38%、资产负债率 33%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 43.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(传媒)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 64% / 64% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "龙版传媒:PE 比行业中位高 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.0个百分点。"]}}