{"F": {"ts_code": "605567.SH", "name": "春雪食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.63, "pe_ttm": 42.1434, "pb": 1.7334, "dv_ttm": 1.0384, "total_mv": 192600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.4, 8.9, 9.8, 5.2, 7.0, 9.1], "rev_series": [18.6, 20.3, 25.0, 28.0, 25.1, 26.3], "np_series": [1.5, 0.6, 0.8, -0.3, 0.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [34.6, 7.1, 7.1, -3.1, 0.8, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.5, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 8.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.6, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 1.37, "interest_debt": 6.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 52.0, "debt_mv": 36.0, "payout": 150.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": -20.7, "rev_yoy": 9.8, "np_yoy": 43.3, "np_vol": 181.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售肉制品", 32.0], ["生鲜", 32.0], ["销售商品代肉鸡", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.9, "ret_prev2_year": -29.1, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": 30.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.6, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 30.8, "pos_52w": 79.7}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 37, "hard": 78, "bondness": 72}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 49%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.9%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.9%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 1.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.1 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 9% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "春雪食品:PE 比行业中位高 12.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.1个百分点。"]}}