{"F": {"ts_code": "605555.SH", "name": "德昌股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "小家电", "sw3": "清洁小家电", "ind": "小家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.43, "pe_ttm": 70.3395, "pb": 2.1021, "dv_ttm": 2.2526, "total_mv": 601697.767, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 19.3, 17.8, 19.1, 17.4, 12.8], "rev_series": [20.6, 28.4, 19.4, 27.8, 40.9, 45.0], "np_series": [3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.2, 4.1, 1.6], "roe_series": [85.9, 21.5, 12.4, 12.2, 14.3, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_yield": -5.0, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -9.2, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 14.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.1, "capex_dep": 2.75, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 48.2, "debt_mv": 8.2, "payout": 40.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 32.4, "np_cagr3": -18.3, "rev_yoy": 11.7, "np_yoy": -69.7, "np_vol": 29.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 27.9, "fwd_pe2": 18.8, "fwd_g1": 152.0, "fwd_g2": 49.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.9, "ret_prev2_year": -3.9, "ret_ytd": -31.0, "ret_pivot": 5.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": -17.5, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": -29.5, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 62.7}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 43, "hard": 42, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 70.3 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.75 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -18% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小家电」23 家中位:PE 50.5 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 50%。", "德昌股份:PE 比行业中位高 19.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}