{"F": {"ts_code": "605499.SH", "name": "东鹏饮料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "软饮料", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 120.41, "pe_ttm": 18.0149, "pb": 4.5393, "dv_ttm": 1.5971, "total_mv": 8840493.8917, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.6, 44.4, 42.3, 43.1, 44.8, 44.9], "rev_series": [49.6, 69.8, 85.1, 112.6, 158.4, 208.8], "np_series": [8.1, 11.9, 14.4, 20.4, 33.3, 44.2], "roe_series": [45.8, 38.8, 31.0, 35.8, 47.5, 51.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 225.8, "np_ttm": 49.1, "ocf_ttm": 69.3, "fcf_ttm": 45.3, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 44.4, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 18.1, "roe_median": 38.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.0, "fix_assets": 75.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.54, "capex_dep": 4.88, "interest_debt": 60.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 45.5, "debt_mv": 6.9, "payout": 58.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 34.9, "np_cagr3": 45.3, "rev_yoy": 15.9, "np_yoy": 20.7, "np_vol": 14.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 41, "fwd_pe": 16.0, "fwd_pe2": 13.9, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["能量饮料", 72.0], ["电解质饮料", 13.0], ["茶饮料", 8.0], ["其他饮料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.9, "ret_prev2_year": 86.8, "ret_ytd": -40.9, "ret_pivot": -4.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -9.5, "ret_120": -30.3, "ret_250": -47.8, "mdd_250": -53.9, "vol_250": 38.2, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 61, "hard": 34, "bondness": 33}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 21%,PE TTM 18.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.0 倍,PEG 1.07。", "自由现金流 45.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 15%(41 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.4%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 4.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.0 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -10% / -30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "东鹏饮料:PE 比行业中位低 11.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}