{"F": {"ts_code": "605488.SH", "name": "福莱新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210513", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.22, "pe_ttm": 104.262, "pb": 3.6249, "dv_ttm": 0.5541, "total_mv": 816568.9692, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 17.2, 12.8, 13.4, 13.4, 13.3], "rev_series": [12.7, 17.2, 19.0, 21.3, 25.4, 28.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.3, 0.8, 0.7, 1.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [30.3, 17.5, 7.3, 6.0, 10.3, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.6, "fix_assets": 20.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.59, "capex_dep": 1.8, "interest_debt": 11.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 46.3, "debt_mv": 14.5, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.5, "np_cagr3": 0.8, "rev_yoy": 28.5, "np_yoy": 2.0, "np_vol": 51.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 72.1, "fwd_pe2": 48.4, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 49.0, "peg": 1.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["广告喷墨打印材料", 20.0], ["标签标识印刷材料", 17.0], ["功能基膜材料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 131.9, "ret_prev2_year": 29.5, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": 260.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -19.8, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 60.2, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 41, "hard": 75, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 1.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 104.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -20% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "福莱新材:PE 比行业中位高 63.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点。"]}}