{"F": {"ts_code": "605398.SH", "name": "新炬网络", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.66, "pe_ttm": 1783.1279, "pb": 4.2338, "dv_ttm": 0.1108, "total_mv": 433801.9224, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.8, 37.7, 35.9, 37.3, 40.9, 43.8], "rev_series": [5.6, 5.9, 6.1, 6.4, 5.3, 5.5], "np_series": [1.1, 0.7, 0.6, 0.6, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [29.2, 10.0, 5.7, 5.7, 2.0, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.23, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 13.8, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": -34.3, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": -187.7, "np_vol": 22.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["原厂软硬件及智慧运维业务分部", 47.0], ["短剧及智能内容的制作和营销", 3.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.5, "ret_prev2_year": 3.4, "ret_ytd": -6.5, "ret_pivot": 56.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 28.3, "ret_60": 18.0, "ret_120": -9.6, "ret_250": -19.1, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 51.0, "pos_52w": 67.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 0, "bondness": 46}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 1783.1 倍,估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.7%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1783.1 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 18% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "新炬网络:PE 比行业中位高 1699.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点。"]}}