{"F": {"ts_code": "605389.SH", "name": "长龄液压", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210322", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 66.53, "pe_ttm": 93.9411, "pb": 5.8529, "dv_ttm": 0.5212, "total_mv": 1244092.3716, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 33.1, 24.5, 24.2, 25.4, 28.5], "rev_series": [8.7, 9.1, 9.0, 8.1, 8.8, 10.7], "np_series": [2.4, 2.0, 1.3, 1.0, 0.9, 1.3], "roe_series": [37.6, 16.1, 7.0, 5.1, 4.5, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.6, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 25.4, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -14.9, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 7.8, "pb_calc": 5.91, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.3, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 98.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.2, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": 18.3, "np_yoy": 9.4, "np_vol": 23.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["张紧装置", 22.0], ["中央回转接头", 13.0], ["精密铸件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 204.6, "ret_prev2_year": 2.5, "ret_ytd": 11.5, "ret_pivot": 451.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.5, "ret_60": -19.1, "ret_120": 24.7, "ret_250": 90.9, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 47, "hard": 31, "bondness": 51}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 93.9 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 91%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -19% / 25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "长龄液压:PE 比行业中位高 65.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点。"]}}