{"F": {"ts_code": "605388.SH", "name": "均瑶健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.18, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4218, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 371099.112, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.6, 40.6, 35.6, 24.4, 30.3, 27.7], "rev_series": [8.5, 9.1, 9.9, 16.3, 14.6, 13.3], "np_series": [2.1, 1.5, 0.8, 0.6, -0.3, -1.9], "roe_series": [14.9, 7.6, 4.0, 3.0, -1.6, -11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.0, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 30.3, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -10.9, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.9, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 6.9, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 1.19, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 19.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 76.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.4, "np_yoy": -39.7, "np_vol": 201.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["其他饮品和食品", 11.0], ["其他饮品", 11.0], ["益生菌饮品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.8, "ret_prev2_year": -29.5, "ret_ytd": -16.9, "ret_pivot": 38.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": 17.0, "ret_120": -6.5, "ret_250": -26.2, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 46.3, "pos_52w": 68.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 67, "bondness": 39}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.19 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 17% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "均瑶健康:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点。"]}}