{"F": {"ts_code": "605378.SH", "name": "野马电池", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "蓄电池及其他电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.4, "pe_ttm": 222.4094, "pb": 3.1289, "dv_ttm": 1.0417, "total_mv": 376338.816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.7, 15.8, 17.2, 20.0, 20.7, 14.2], "rev_series": [11.0, 11.9, 10.2, 10.0, 13.0, 12.4], "np_series": [1.2, 0.8, 1.0, 1.1, 1.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [21.7, 8.8, 8.5, 8.7, 12.1, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 9.7, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.3, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.13, "capex_dep": 3.24, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 21.5, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": -16.1, "rev_yoy": -5.0, "np_yoy": -134.9, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["碱性电池", 42.0], ["碳性电池", 6.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 57.2, "ret_prev2_year": 18.1, "ret_ytd": -35.5, "ret_pivot": 48.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": -5.6, "ret_120": -31.4, "ret_250": -45.5, "mdd_250": -60.1, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 47.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 50, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 3.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 222.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -6% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "野马电池:PE 比行业中位高 186.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点。"]}}