{"F": {"ts_code": "605377.SH", "name": "华旺科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.16, "pe_ttm": 18.4277, "pb": 1.1586, "dv_ttm": 5.3922, "total_mv": 454242.9648, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.6, 21.9, 18.5, 19.0, 15.8, 13.3], "rev_series": [16.1, 29.4, 34.4, 39.8, 37.7, 32.0], "np_series": [2.6, 4.5, 4.7, 5.7, 4.7, 2.7], "roe_series": [15.8, 18.8, 15.2, 14.9, 11.8, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.3, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_yield": 12.8, "ocf_yield": 13.6, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.1, "fix_assets": 12.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.16, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 32.7, "debt_mv": 15.5, "payout": 127.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.3, "np_cagr3": -16.6, "rev_yoy": -10.4, "np_yoy": -15.7, "np_vol": 38.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 14.1, "fwd_pe2": 12.4, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["装饰原纸", 42.0], ["木浆贸易", 8.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.2, "ret_prev2_year": 8.0, "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_pivot": -0.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.6, "ret_60": 0.5, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": -11.2, "mdd_250": -24.7, "vol_250": 37.4, "pos_52w": 80.4}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 42, "hard": 34, "bondness": 91}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 128%、股息率 5.4%、营收 3 年复合 -2.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.8%(经营现金流/市值 13.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.4 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 0% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "华旺科技:PE 比行业中位低 3.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 28.8个百分点。"]}}