{"F": {"ts_code": "605376.SH", "name": "博迁新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "镍", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 133.24, "pe_ttm": 139.8335, "pb": 19.1066, "dv_ttm": 0.0751, "total_mv": 3485558.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.3, 38.3, 36.8, 15.0, 20.9, 32.6], "rev_series": [6.0, 9.7, 7.5, 6.9, 9.5, 11.5], "np_series": [1.6, 2.4, 1.5, -0.3, 0.9, 2.2], "roe_series": [16.0, 15.8, 9.4, -2.0, 5.6, 13.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.2, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 9.2, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": 19.0, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 48.1, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 19.11, "capex_dep": 4.38, "interest_debt": 6.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 33.9, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 77.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.5, "np_cagr3": 12.6, "rev_yoy": 71.6, "np_yoy": 28.5, "np_vol": 169.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 55.5, "fwd_pe2": 28.6, "fwd_g1": 152.0, "fwd_g2": 94.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["镍粉", 22.0], ["镍基产品", 22.0], ["铜粉", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 127.5, "ret_prev2_year": 4.6, "ret_ytd": 104.0, "ret_pivot": 542.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.7, "ret_60": -26.3, "ret_120": 42.7, "ret_250": 168.7, "mdd_250": -53.1, "vol_250": 74.8, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 70, "hard": 77, "bondness": 36}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 13 亿,占总资产 48%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:镍 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.3%,股息率 0.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 96%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 48%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 4.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 139.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 169%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / -26% / 43%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "博迁新材:PE 比行业中位高 121.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点。"]}}