{"F": {"ts_code": "605368.SH", "name": "蓝天燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.98, "pe_ttm": 21.1099, "pb": 1.4707, "dv_ttm": 5.7307, "total_mv": 498815.8582, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.9, 19.2, 21.1, 21.4, 19.4, 16.2], "rev_series": [35.5, 39.0, 47.5, 49.5, 47.6, 40.6], "np_series": [3.3, 4.2, 5.9, 6.1, 5.0, 2.8], "roe_series": [18.7, 17.7, 18.0, 16.2, 13.5, 8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.8, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 10.4, "gm_median": 19.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 16.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.9, "fix_assets": 31.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.8, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 13.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 40.6, "debt_mv": 26.0, "payout": 102.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": -21.9, "rev_yoy": -3.5, "np_yoy": -22.3, "np_vol": 30.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 16.2, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["城市天然气销售", 23.0], ["管道天然气销售", 20.0], ["燃气安装工程", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.0, "ret_prev2_year": 22.7, "ret_ytd": -9.6, "ret_pivot": -38.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -18.3, "ret_250": -28.5, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 26.5, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 51, "hard": 86, "bondness": 92}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 103%、股息率 5.7%、营收 3 年复合 -5.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 10.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.1 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -1% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "蓝天燃气:PE 比行业中位低 1.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}