{"F": {"ts_code": "605366.SH", "name": "宏柏新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.89, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2774, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 609761.0553, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.0, 26.8, 33.9, 15.2, 10.5, 3.5], "rev_series": [9.0, 12.8, 17.0, 13.9, 14.8, 13.9], "np_series": [1.2, 1.7, 3.5, 0.6, -0.3, -1.5], "roe_series": [9.8, 9.8, 18.8, 3.3, -1.5, -7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.1, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -9.1, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 15.2, "gm_std": 11.0, "gm_stab": 0.28, "gm_chg_2022": 7.9, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.1, "fix_assets": 15.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.28, "capex_dep": 2.4, "interest_debt": 7.6, "debt_ebitda": 9.6, "debt_ratio": 29.8, "debt_mv": 12.5, "payout": 72.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.9, "np_yoy": -14.6, "np_vol": 166.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["硅烷偶联剂", 39.0], ["气相白炭黑", 7.0], ["其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.4, "ret_prev2_year": -34.1, "ret_ytd": 27.3, "ret_pivot": 59.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -25.2, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": 20.8, "mdd_250": -52.4, "vol_250": 62.8, "pos_52w": 54.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 59, "bondness": 60}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%,稳定度 28%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%,稳定度 28%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -25% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "宏柏新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}