{"F": {"ts_code": "605339.SH", "name": "南侨食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "烘焙食品", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.53, "pe_ttm": 786.2332, "pb": 1.6842, "dv_ttm": 0.2199, "total_mv": 574065.1818, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.8, 31.1, 21.7, 23.8, 24.2, 19.2], "rev_series": [23.2, 28.7, 28.6, 30.8, 31.6, 30.6], "np_series": [3.3, 3.7, 1.6, 2.3, 2.0, 0.4], "roe_series": [17.3, 14.3, 5.0, 7.0, 5.9, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -5.6, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -17.1, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.9, "fix_assets": 15.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.68, "capex_dep": 3.95, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 17.7, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": -36.7, "rev_yoy": -5.7, "np_yoy": -92.8, "np_vol": 45.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 96.6, "fwd_pe2": 79.6, "fwd_g1": 714.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 4.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["烘焙应用油脂", 40.0], ["乳制品", 16.0], ["预制烘焙品", 15.0], ["预制品类", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.2, "ret_ytd": -30.9, "ret_pivot": -5.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -21.5, "ret_250": -24.0, "mdd_250": -47.2, "vol_250": 39.8, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 59, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 786.2 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 3.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 786.2 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 5% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "南侨食品:PE 比行业中位高 765.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点。"]}}