{"F": {"ts_code": "605338.SH", "name": "巴比食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201012", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.35, "pe_ttm": 16.7934, "pb": 2.1219, "dv_ttm": 6.2016, "total_mv": 463561.5645, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 25.7, 27.7, 26.3, 26.7, 28.5], "rev_series": [9.8, 13.8, 15.3, 16.3, 16.7, 18.6], "np_series": [1.8, 3.1, 2.2, 2.1, 2.8, 2.7], "roe_series": [14.9, 17.7, 11.2, 10.0, 12.4, 11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.8, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 6.8, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 26.7, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 14.6, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.5, "fix_assets": 7.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 19.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.8, "np_cagr3": 7.1, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 2.3, "np_vol": 37.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 15.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["食品类", 89.0], ["包装物及辅料", 7.0], ["服务类", 4.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.2, "ret_prev2_year": -20.0, "ret_ytd": -35.8, "ret_pivot": 72.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -12.6, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 60.0}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 54, "hard": 46, "bondness": 68}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 71%、股息率 6.2%、营收 3 年复合 6.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 0% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "巴比食品:PE 比行业中位低 13.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}