{"F": {"ts_code": "605337.SH", "name": "李子园", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "软饮料", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.46, "pe_ttm": 22.1963, "pb": 2.2629, "dv_ttm": 4.9111, "total_mv": 366685.209, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.2, 35.9, 32.5, 35.8, 39.1, 39.3], "rev_series": [10.9, 14.7, 14.0, 14.1, 14.2, 13.0], "np_series": [2.1, 2.6, 2.2, 2.4, 2.2, 2.0], "roe_series": [34.5, 22.5, 13.3, 13.8, 13.0, 11.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.8, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 35.9, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 15.8, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.8, "fix_assets": 12.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 2.85, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 23.0, "payout": 86.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.6, "np_cagr3": -3.9, "rev_yoy": -2.7, "np_yoy": -32.3, "np_vol": 14.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 22.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["含乳饮料", 75.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0], ["其他", 10.0], ["乳味风味饮料", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.0, "ret_prev2_year": -18.2, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 27.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": 7.5, "ret_120": -15.6, "ret_250": -29.1, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 32.3, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 54, "hard": 62, "bondness": 88}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 12 亿,占总资产 39%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -2.0%,股息率 4.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 39%)和定价权(毛利率 35.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.2 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 8% / -16%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "李子园:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}