{"F": {"ts_code": "605333.SH", "name": "沪光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.49, "pe_ttm": 31.4111, "pb": 2.4292, "dv_ttm": 1.1435, "total_mv": 811606.6596, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 9.5, 11.3, 12.9, 17.5, 14.3], "rev_series": [15.3, 24.5, 32.8, 40.0, 79.1, 84.9], "np_series": [0.7, -0.0, 0.4, 0.5, 6.7, 4.8], "roe_series": [11.3, -0.1, 3.7, 3.6, 35.6, 17.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 83.9, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.1, "fix_assets": 25.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.43, "capex_dep": 1.67, "interest_debt": 20.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": 24.8, "payout": 18.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 37.3, "np_cagr3": 127.1, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": -80.6, "np_vol": 1559.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 17.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.4, "fwd_g1": 79.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["汽车线束", 47.0], ["汽车配件及其他", 2.0], ["汽车配件", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.0, "ret_prev2_year": 65.8, "ret_ytd": -41.0, "ret_pivot": -27.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": -4.6, "ret_120": -34.4, "ret_250": -48.8, "mdd_250": -60.1, "vol_250": 36.5, "pos_52w": 44.8}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 39, "hard": 48, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.4 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -5% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "沪光股份:PE 比行业中位高 1.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点。"]}}