{"F": {"ts_code": "605319.SH", "name": "无锡振华", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210607", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.23, "pe_ttm": 19.577, "pb": 3.1924, "dv_ttm": 1.7156, "total_mv": 918306.8442, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 15.8, 15.4, 25.1, 25.9, 28.4], "rev_series": [14.2, 15.8, 17.5, 23.2, 25.3, 29.6], "np_series": [1.1, 0.9, 0.8, 2.8, 3.8, 4.7], "roe_series": [9.5, 6.2, 4.5, 13.9, 16.4, 17.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.8, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 13.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.7, "fix_assets": 26.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.17, "capex_dep": 1.37, "interest_debt": 10.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 53.9, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": 39.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.2, "np_cagr3": 79.1, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 1.9, "np_vol": 31.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 17.6, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冲压零部件", 55.0], ["分拼总成加工业务", 23.0], ["选择性精密电镀加工业务", 5.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.3, "ret_prev2_year": -6.5, "ret_ytd": 26.2, "ret_pivot": 141.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 2.3, "ret_120": 7.7, "ret_250": 8.1, "mdd_250": -31.9, "vol_250": 38.4, "pos_52w": 88.5}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 44, "hard": 67, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.6 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.6 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "无锡振华:PE 比行业中位低 10.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.2个百分点。"]}}