{"F": {"ts_code": "605318.SH", "name": "法狮龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "其他建材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 77.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 15.5345, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 974399.75, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.0, 27.6, 25.9, 26.7, 17.8, 22.1], "rev_series": [4.5, 6.6, 6.8, 7.4, 6.1, 5.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.1, 0.1, -0.3, -0.1], "roe_series": [10.1, 7.1, 1.4, 1.6, -3.9, -1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.3, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 15.53, "capex_dep": 5.93, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 11.6, "debt_ratio": 40.1, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 300.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.4, "np_yoy": -72.8, "np_vol": 139.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 3100.0, "fwd_pe2": 1192.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 160.0, "peg": 19.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["集成吊顶", 33.0], ["集成墙面", 7.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 221.0, "ret_prev2_year": 31.2, "ret_ytd": 18.9, "ret_pivot": 391.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -39.0, "ret_120": 5.4, "ret_250": 127.5, "mdd_250": -50.3, "vol_250": 64.5, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 52, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 5.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 128%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -39% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "法狮龙:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}