{"F": {"ts_code": "605300.SH", "name": "佳禾食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210430", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.32, "pe_ttm": 99.7525, "pb": 1.637, "dv_ttm": 0.6715, "total_mv": 468939.3552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 13.6, 12.3, 18.0, 16.1, 13.0], "rev_series": [18.7, 24.0, 24.3, 28.4, 23.1, 22.6], "np_series": [2.2, 1.5, 1.2, 2.6, 0.8, 0.3], "roe_series": [16.6, 9.0, 5.8, 12.1, 3.8, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -12.2, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.1, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 21.9, "debt_mv": 9.4, "payout": 43.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": -35.6, "rev_yoy": -4.6, "np_yoy": 130.4, "np_vol": 70.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 60.7, "fwd_pe2": 54.3, "fwd_g1": 64.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 5.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["粉末油脂", 20.0], ["咖啡", 7.0], ["其他业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.4, "ret_prev2_year": -12.7, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 1.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": 14.9, "ret_120": -8.4, "ret_250": -27.1, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 32.9, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 40, "hard": 29, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 99.8 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 99.8 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 15% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "佳禾食品:PE 比行业中位高 70.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点。"]}}