{"F": {"ts_code": "605298.SH", "name": "必得科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.7, "pe_ttm": 164.7608, "pb": 8.6717, "dv_ttm": 0.4107, "total_mv": 914829.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.1, 55.0, 52.9, 40.5, 42.0, 43.4], "rev_series": [3.5, 3.0, 2.3, 3.5, 4.8, 5.6], "np_series": [1.0, 0.8, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4, 0.6], "roe_series": [20.8, 11.3, 4.9, 3.1, 3.9, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 43.4, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.1, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 8.67, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 16.3, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 64.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 34.7, "np_cagr3": 6.5, "rev_yoy": -11.8, "np_yoy": -5.6, "np_vol": 35.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["动车组车辆配套产品", 18.0], ["城轨地铁车辆配套产品", 15.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 201.3, "ret_prev2_year": 14.1, "ret_ytd": 22.5, "ret_pivot": 577.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -9.8, "ret_120": -0.1, "ret_250": 94.2, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 77.2}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 61, "hard": 34, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 164.8 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.4%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.4%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 164.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 94%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -10% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "必得科技:PE 比行业中位高 138.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}