{"F": {"ts_code": "605296.SH", "name": "神农集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "生猪养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.67, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.5394, "dv_ttm": 1.0903, "total_mv": 1877064.5502, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.1, 21.5, 18.5, 4.4, 20.8, 16.3], "rev_series": [27.2, 27.8, 33.0, 38.9, 55.8, 53.5], "np_series": [11.4, 2.5, 2.6, -4.0, 6.9, 3.4], "roe_series": [65.4, 7.3, 5.6, -9.0, 15.2, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.4, "np_ttm": -8.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -9.1, "fcf_yield": -4.8, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -30.6, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.7, "fix_assets": 35.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.54, "capex_dep": 1.8, "interest_debt": 13.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 40.7, "debt_mv": 7.3, "payout": 120.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 17.4, "np_cagr3": 9.9, "rev_yoy": -11.0, "np_yoy": -308.7, "np_vol": 170.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 21.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["生猪", 35.0], ["饲料业务", 22.0], ["屠宰业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.4, "ret_prev2_year": -10.0, "ret_ytd": 21.7, "ret_pivot": 44.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 20.0, "ret_60": 39.2, "ret_120": 18.0, "ret_250": 8.5, "mdd_250": -28.1, "vol_250": 35.3, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 81, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -30.6 个百分点;资产负债率 41%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -30.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 1.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 39% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "神农集团:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}