{"F": {"ts_code": "605288.SH", "name": "凯迪股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200601", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 65.61, "pe_ttm": 1191.8074, "pb": 2.9845, "dv_ttm": 0.8062, "total_mv": 647390.4103, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.6, 20.9, 18.9, 25.4, 22.8, 23.6], "rev_series": [12.7, 17.2, 11.7, 12.3, 13.4, 13.4], "np_series": [1.7, 1.2, 0.5, 1.1, 0.9, 0.6], "roe_series": [12.8, 5.8, 2.3, 5.1, 4.0, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 22.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -12.7, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.2, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.98, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 20.8, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": 7.7, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": -177.6, "np_vol": 63.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["线性驱动产品", 49.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 171.1, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": 3.1, "ret_pivot": 226.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.3, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": -14.2, "ret_250": 29.7, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 76.7, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 50, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 1191.8 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%、固定资产占比 31%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1191.8 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -1% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "凯迪股份:PE 比行业中位高 1114.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点。"]}}