{"F": {"ts_code": "605286.SH", "name": "同力天启", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210322", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.79, "pe_ttm": 42.3002, "pb": 2.0059, "dv_ttm": 0.4653, "total_mv": 433272.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 14.4, 15.8, 19.2, 27.5, 18.9], "rev_series": [17.5, 23.0, 24.5, 24.3, 25.3, 21.5], "np_series": [1.5, 1.5, 1.4, 2.2, 2.5, 2.0], "roe_series": [21.6, 13.5, 9.3, 12.7, 13.0, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.8, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -4.1, "fcf_ttm": -14.5, "fcf_yield": -33.4, "ocf_yield": -9.4, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.2, "fix_assets": 15.1, "goodwill_ratio": 5.1, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 13.07, "interest_debt": 17.6, "debt_ebitda": 61.5, "debt_ratio": 51.3, "debt_mv": 40.6, "payout": 16.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.4, "np_cagr3": 11.2, "rev_yoy": -14.5, "np_yoy": -83.1, "np_vol": 23.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.0, "fwd_pe2": 8.1, "fwd_g1": 164.0, "fwd_g2": 99.0, "peg": 0.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电梯部件及材料", 30.0], ["电梯部件", 30.0], ["新能源电站", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.5, "ret_prev2_year": 2.7, "ret_ytd": -36.4, "ret_pivot": 26.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.8, "ret_60": -11.3, "ret_120": -47.1, "ret_250": -40.3, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 56.4, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 43, "hard": 45, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.3 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 61.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -33.4%(经营现金流/市值 -9.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 13.07 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -11% / -47%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "同力天启:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点。"]}}