{"F": {"ts_code": "605228.SH", "name": "神通科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.71, "pe_ttm": 31.8618, "pb": 2.2459, "dv_ttm": 1.2986, "total_mv": 513710.8263, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.0, 22.3, 19.5, 19.4, 18.5, 23.2], "rev_series": [14.9, 13.8, 14.3, 16.4, 13.9, 18.8], "np_series": [1.2, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, -0.3, 1.3], "roe_series": [12.8, 7.9, 3.1, 3.6, -2.1, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 6.8, "ocf_yield": 10.4, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 24.5, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 66.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.7, "np_cagr3": 43.5, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": 43.9, "np_vol": 234.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车零部件销售", 48.0], ["汽车零部件", 48.0], ["模具销售", 1.0], ["模具类", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.4, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": 38.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": -20.5, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": -37.1, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 43.0, "pos_52w": 56.3}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 46, "hard": 42, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.9 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.8%(经营现金流/市值 10.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.9 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -20% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "神通科技:PE 比行业中位高 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}