{"F": {"ts_code": "605208.SH", "name": "永茂泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.72, "pe_ttm": 37.8888, "pb": 2.1369, "dv_ttm": 0.4076, "total_mv": 485671.68, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.2, 13.1, 9.6, 7.0, 5.6, 6.0], "rev_series": [27.0, 32.9, 35.3, 35.4, 41.0, 58.5], "np_series": [1.7, 2.3, 0.9, 0.3, 0.4, 0.7], "roe_series": [15.0, 14.0, 4.6, 1.5, 1.8, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.1, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": -4.5, "fcf_ttm": -7.6, "fcf_yield": -15.7, "ocf_yield": -9.2, "gm_median": 7.0, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 27.2, "fix_assets": 15.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 27.6, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 56.9, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": -10.5, "rev_yoy": 13.9, "np_yoy": 306.9, "np_vol": 56.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铝合金液", 46.0], ["铝合金锭", 30.0], ["汽车零部件", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.6, "ret_prev2_year": -18.9, "ret_ytd": 8.9, "ret_pivot": 149.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": 12.6, "ret_250": 2.6, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 46.8, "pos_52w": 76.2}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 70, "hard": 44, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.9 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.0%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 7.0%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.7%(经营现金流/市值 -9.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.0%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.9 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -6% / 13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "永茂泰:PE 比行业中位高 17.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}