{"F": {"ts_code": "605199.SH", "name": "ST葫芦娃", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200710", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.96, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.9725, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 238464.8448, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.8, 59.7, 57.9, 50.7, 47.9, 29.3], "rev_series": [11.6, 13.5, 15.2, 18.0, 14.1, 9.0], "np_series": [1.2, 0.7, 0.9, 0.1, -2.7, -2.9], "roe_series": [15.6, 7.8, 8.8, 1.0, -31.8, -51.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": -4.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 5.8, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 50.7, "gm_std": 10.8, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.9, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.97, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 10.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 85.7, "debt_mv": 44.0, "payout": 310.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -15.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -52.6, "np_yoy": -4805.4, "np_vol": 1040.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["呼吸系统药物", 27.0], ["消化系统药物", 7.0], ["其他药物", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -52.2, "ret_prev2_year": 6.0, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": -45.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -5.1, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -35.8, "mdd_250": -49.1, "vol_250": 34.1, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 91, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 86%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 50.7%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.7%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -5% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "ST葫芦娃:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.5个百分点。"]}}