{"F": {"ts_code": "605189.SH", "name": "富春染织", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "印染", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.84, "pe_ttm": 13.5644, "pb": 1.2799, "dv_ttm": 0.7449, "total_mv": 329717.1016, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.2, 18.5, 11.8, 11.5, 12.3, 9.8], "rev_series": [15.2, 21.8, 22.1, 25.1, 30.5, 34.1], "np_series": [1.1, 2.3, 1.6, 1.0, 1.3, 0.8], "roe_series": [15.5, 20.4, 10.1, 5.9, 6.9, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.0, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 9.8, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 11.8, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.0, "fix_assets": 19.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.28, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 20.6, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 54.6, "debt_mv": 62.4, "payout": 22.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.6, "np_cagr3": -22.2, "rev_yoy": 46.9, "np_yoy": 1238.1, "np_vol": 55.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 11.2, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": -5.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["色纱及坯纱", 28.0], ["色纱(含丝光棉)", 28.0], ["棉纱及棉花贸易", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.0, "ret_prev2_year": -24.8, "ret_ytd": -11.1, "ret_pivot": 62.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.1, "ret_60": 6.6, "ret_120": -4.4, "ret_250": -10.5, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 53.7, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 37, "hard": 54, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.8%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.6 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / 7% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "富春染织:PE 比行业中位低 9.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点。"]}}