{"F": {"ts_code": "605188.SH", "name": "国光连锁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "超市", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200728", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.3, "pe_ttm": 416.6221, "pb": 5.8621, "dv_ttm": 0.1038, "total_mv": 726077.495, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 26.8, 25.6, 24.9, 22.3, 21.6], "rev_series": [22.5, 21.4, 22.5, 24.1, 26.9, 28.2], "np_series": [1.1, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [11.0, 2.7, 1.7, 1.3, 0.2, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 24.9, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.7, "fix_assets": 9.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.86, "capex_dep": 2.09, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 55.5, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 47.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": -5.9, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": 8.9, "np_vol": 216.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["超市业务", 31.0], ["超市", 31.0], ["经营性物业出租", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 154.4, "ret_prev2_year": -10.1, "ret_ytd": -26.2, "ret_pivot": 133.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.9, "ret_60": 11.2, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": 3.1, "mdd_250": -60.1, "vol_250": 62.8, "pos_52w": 52.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 54, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 416.6 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 2.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 416.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 11% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "国光连锁:PE 比行业中位高 355.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}