{"F": {"ts_code": "605179.SH", "name": "一鸣食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.68, "pe_ttm": 198.3306, "pb": 9.9217, "dv_ttm": 0.2197, "total_mv": 1150068.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.0, 31.1, 29.5, 30.5, 28.6, 27.5], "rev_series": [19.5, 23.2, 24.3, 26.4, 27.5, 29.0], "np_series": [1.3, 0.2, -1.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [13.6, 1.6, -11.3, 2.0, 2.6, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.9, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -10.5, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.3, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.92, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 58.4, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 69.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.8, "np_yoy": 21.1, "np_vol": 316.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["乳品", 20.0], ["烘焙食品", 13.0], ["烘焙", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.8, "ret_prev2_year": 36.1, "ret_ytd": 37.4, "ret_pivot": 238.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 25.6, "ret_60": 108.3, "ret_120": 59.2, "ret_250": 24.1, "mdd_250": -48.4, "vol_250": 54.4, "pos_52w": 74.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 52, "hard": 79, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 198.3 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 198.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 108% / 59%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "一鸣食品:PE 比行业中位高 169.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点。"]}}