{"F": {"ts_code": "605169.SH", "name": "洪通燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.62, "pe_ttm": 24.1767, "pb": 1.7339, "dv_ttm": 1.5524, "total_mv": 356994.56, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.0, 32.4, 26.3, 20.3, 15.6, 11.6], "rev_series": [8.0, 12.0, 14.4, 18.8, 27.5, 31.3], "np_series": [1.2, 2.0, 1.6, 1.5, 1.7, 1.2], "roe_series": [11.4, 12.4, 9.4, 8.6, 9.2, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.8, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 20.3, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.4, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 14.9, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 40.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 29.6, "np_cagr3": -8.9, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": 35.8, "np_vol": 32.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["LNG销售", 27.0], ["LNG", 27.0], ["CNG销售", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.0, "ret_ytd": -2.8, "ret_pivot": 57.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 26.8, "ret_60": 23.0, "ret_120": -3.4, "ret_250": -20.6, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 71.0}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 36, "hard": 77, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.2 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 63%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 23% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "洪通燃气:PE 比行业中位高 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点。"]}}