{"F": {"ts_code": "605168.SH", "name": "三人行", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.72, "pe_ttm": 80.745, "pb": 3.7954, "dv_ttm": 1.5088, "total_mv": 1006018.724, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 21.2, 16.7, 17.7, 18.2, 16.8], "rev_series": [28.1, 35.7, 56.5, 52.8, 42.1, 36.6], "np_series": [3.6, 5.0, 7.4, 5.3, 1.2, 1.9], "roe_series": [35.1, 27.3, 32.1, 19.2, 4.4, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.9, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 17.7, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 10.0, "roe_median": 19.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.9, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.8, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 37.0, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 80.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.5, "np_cagr3": -36.3, "rev_yoy": 19.5, "np_yoy": -45.3, "np_vol": 51.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 37.8, "fwd_pe2": 29.1, "fwd_g1": 114.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["数字营销服务", 29.0], ["数字营销服务：广告投放代理", 28.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.1, "ret_ytd": 26.0, "ret_pivot": 94.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.3, "ret_60": 3.7, "ret_120": 37.3, "ret_250": 39.6, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 55.1, "pos_52w": 75.9}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 46, "hard": 6, "bondness": 61}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 80.7 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 37.8 倍,次年 29.1 倍,PEG 1.26。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 80.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 4% / 37%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "三人行:PE 比行业中位低 17.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}