{"F": {"ts_code": "605167.SH", "name": "利柏特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "化学工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.05, "pe_ttm": 42.9333, "pb": 2.8811, "dv_ttm": 0.2781, "total_mv": 818401.698, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.3, 15.0, 19.8, 14.5, 16.1, 20.1], "rev_series": [15.1, 19.8, 17.2, 32.4, 34.9, 26.2], "np_series": [1.0, 1.1, 1.4, 1.9, 2.4, 2.2], "roe_series": [13.5, 10.2, 9.8, 12.3, 13.9, 11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.3, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.4, "fcf_yield": -6.6, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 16.1, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.1, "fix_assets": 19.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.88, "capex_dep": 11.01, "interest_debt": 5.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 33.9, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 10.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.1, "np_cagr3": 16.8, "rev_yoy": -34.0, "np_yoy": -23.0, "np_vol": 17.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 32.2, "fwd_pe2": 22.1, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工程服务", 32.0], ["工业模块设计和制造", 18.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.8, "ret_prev2_year": 2.1, "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_pivot": 107.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 13.6, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": 47.1, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 55.9, "pos_52w": 81.3}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 47, "hard": 74, "bondness": 16}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 11.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.9 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 47%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 14% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "利柏特:PE 比行业中位高 2.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.8个百分点。"]}}