{"F": {"ts_code": "605166.SH", "name": "聚合顺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "锦纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200618", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.77, "pe_ttm": 28.3893, "pb": 1.3821, "dv_ttm": 0.7184, "total_mv": 276021.718, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.8, 7.6, 6.3, 6.7, 8.1, 6.7], "rev_series": [25.6, 54.0, 60.4, 60.2, 71.7, 55.2], "np_series": [1.2, 2.4, 2.4, 2.0, 3.0, 1.4], "roe_series": [13.4, 18.8, 16.4, 12.0, 16.5, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.4, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 6.7, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 16.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 19.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 2.17, "interest_debt": 10.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 62.4, "debt_mv": 38.1, "payout": 14.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": -15.7, "rev_yoy": -12.6, "np_yoy": -43.0, "np_vol": 55.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 14.3, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 99.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纤维级切片", 60.0], ["工程塑料级切片", 34.0], ["薄膜级切片", 4.0], ["其他切片", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.5, "ret_prev2_year": 24.7, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 1.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -8.0, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -29.7, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 66.9}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 40, "hard": 51, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.7%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.4 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -8% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "聚合顺:PE 比行业中位低 4.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点。"]}}