{"F": {"ts_code": "605138.SH", "name": "盛泰集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211027", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.01, "pe_ttm": 20.9469, "pb": 1.3701, "dv_ttm": 0.8985, "total_mv": 333898.5917, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.0, 15.9, 18.4, 16.2, 16.4, 17.8], "rev_series": [47.0, 51.6, 59.7, 46.5, 36.7, 34.2], "np_series": [2.9, 2.9, 3.8, 1.0, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [21.3, 16.7, 16.4, 4.1, 1.8, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.3, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -4.4, "ocf_yield": 13.1, "gm_median": 16.4, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.7, "fix_assets": 28.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.33, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 31.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 58.8, "debt_mv": 94.4, "payout": 137.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -16.9, "np_cagr3": -56.8, "rev_yoy": 0.6, "np_yoy": 413.5, "np_vol": 36.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["成衣", 32.0], ["面料", 9.0], ["纱线", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.6, "ret_prev2_year": -28.3, "ret_ytd": -13.0, "ret_pivot": 27.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": -3.8, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -23.3, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 47, "hard": 70, "bondness": 75}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.4%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.4%(经营现金流/市值 13.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -4% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "盛泰集团:PE 比行业中位低 16.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 25.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.6个百分点。"]}}