{"F": {"ts_code": "605128.SH", "name": "上海沿浦", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.47, "pe_ttm": 39.5056, "pb": 3.6626, "dv_ttm": 0.7349, "total_mv": 799724.1249, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 19.2, 13.2, 16.1, 17.3, 17.4], "rev_series": [7.9, 8.3, 11.2, 15.2, 22.8, 24.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 0.5, 0.9, 1.4, 1.9], "roe_series": [10.7, 6.9, 4.2, 7.8, 9.6, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.1, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 6.0, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.66, "capex_dep": 2.67, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 28.5, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 32.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 29.2, "np_cagr3": 60.1, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": 18.9, "np_vol": 47.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 29.9, "fwd_pe2": 22.8, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.96, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["骨架总成", 34.0], ["汽车座椅骨架总成", 34.0], ["精密冲压件(含集装箱冲压部件)", 14.0], ["冲压件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.8, "ret_prev2_year": -5.3, "ret_ytd": 3.7, "ret_pivot": 128.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.7, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": 9.3, "ret_250": -3.7, "mdd_250": -35.6, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 82.5}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 43, "hard": 32, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.5 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.67 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.5 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 5% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "上海沿浦:PE 比行业中位高 9.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}