{"F": {"ts_code": "605123.SH", "name": "派克新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 81.47, "pe_ttm": 35.7833, "pb": 2.0831, "dv_ttm": 0.9574, "total_mv": 987179.3223, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.5, 29.0, 25.4, 23.9, 18.7, 15.8], "rev_series": [10.3, 17.3, 27.8, 36.2, 32.1, 35.4], "np_series": [1.7, 3.0, 4.9, 4.9, 2.6, 2.5], "roe_series": [15.0, 17.9, 17.1, 12.1, 6.1, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.0, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 8.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.4, "fix_assets": 22.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.08, "capex_dep": 5.15, "interest_debt": 10.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 10.8, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.4, "np_cagr3": -19.6, "rev_yoy": 25.8, "np_yoy": 13.4, "np_vol": 46.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 25.4, "fwd_pe2": 20.3, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 1.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力锻件收入", 22.0], ["航空航天锻件收入", 12.0], ["石化锻件收入", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.5, "ret_prev2_year": -40.3, "ret_ytd": -21.4, "ret_pivot": 88.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": -13.8, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": 9.5, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 44, "hard": 41, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.8 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 5.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.8 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -14% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "派克新材:PE 比行业中位低 38.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}