{"F": {"ts_code": "605117.SH", "name": "德业股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "逆变器", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 86.42, "pe_ttm": 25.2026, "pb": 9.5803, "dv_ttm": 2.3997, "total_mv": 11003703.6662, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.6, 22.9, 38.0, 40.4, 38.8, 38.1], "rev_series": [30.2, 41.7, 59.6, 74.8, 112.1, 122.2], "np_series": [3.8, 5.8, 15.2, 17.9, 29.6, 31.7], "roe_series": [54.0, 33.0, 45.3, 38.5, 40.3, 32.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 173.3, "np_ttm": 43.7, "ocf_ttm": 66.7, "fcf_ttm": 55.0, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 38.1, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 15.4, "npm_median": 25.6, "roe_median": 38.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.6, "fix_assets": 33.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.58, "capex_dep": 5.27, "interest_debt": 20.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 53.9, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 79.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.1, "np_cagr3": 27.8, "rev_yoy": 92.2, "np_yoy": 78.5, "np_vol": 55.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 25, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": 49.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["主营业务", 34.0], ["逆变器", 16.0], ["储能电池", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.2, "ret_prev2_year": 54.5, "ret_ytd": 43.4, "ret_pivot": 125.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -14.6, "ret_120": -8.6, "ret_250": 105.0, "mdd_250": -35.1, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 59, "hard": 22, "bondness": 44}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 78%,PE TTM 25.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.0 倍,PEG 0.71。", "自由现金流 55.0 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(25 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 5.27 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.2 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 105%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -15% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "德业股份:PE 比行业中位低 15.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点。"]}}