{"F": {"ts_code": "605108.SH", "name": "同庆楼", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "酒店餐饮", "sw3": "餐饮", "ind": "酒店餐饮", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.25, "pe_ttm": 109.2726, "pb": 1.4863, "dv_ttm": 0.9022, "total_mv": 344500.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.8, 21.1, 18.3, 26.6, 19.2, 19.3], "rev_series": [13.0, 16.1, 16.7, 24.0, 25.2, 26.8], "np_series": [1.9, 1.4, 0.9, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [12.8, 7.4, 4.7, 14.4, 4.5, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -11.7, "ocf_yield": 17.0, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -36.4, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.5, "fix_assets": 32.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.49, "capex_dep": 4.61, "interest_debt": 30.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.0, "debt_ratio": 62.3, "debt_mv": 88.7, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.1, "np_cagr3": 2.9, "rev_yoy": -0.2, "np_yoy": -98.1, "np_vol": 104.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 30.8, "fwd_pe2": 24.9, "fwd_g1": 255.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["餐饮及住宿服务", 42.0], ["食品销售", 7.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.3, "ret_prev2_year": -18.5, "ret_ytd": -30.6, "ret_pivot": -16.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": 6.5, "ret_120": -24.1, "ret_250": -36.1, "mdd_250": -53.7, "vol_250": 35.3, "pos_52w": 55.3}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 43, "hard": 86, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -36.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.7%(经营现金流/市值 17.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -36.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 4.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 6% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「酒店餐饮」9 家中位:PE 75.3 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 59%。", "同庆楼:PE 比行业中位高 34.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.1个百分点。"]}}