{"F": {"ts_code": "605100.SH", "name": "华丰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.56, "pe_ttm": 272.5501, "pb": 4.3115, "dv_ttm": 0.2199, "total_mv": 778255.632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.1, 19.5, 12.6, 19.2, 15.9, 12.5], "rev_series": [15.9, 13.5, 7.4, 13.5, 9.2, 7.9], "np_series": [1.9, 1.6, 0.2, 1.1, 0.7, 0.2], "roe_series": [15.0, 9.2, 1.3, 6.0, 4.0, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.7, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.31, "capex_dep": 0.1, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 18.3, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 76.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": -1.2, "rev_yoy": 32.6, "np_yoy": 43.9, "np_vol": 167.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 108.5, "fwd_pe2": 65.1, "fwd_g1": 151.0, "fwd_g2": 67.0, "peg": 1.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["零部件", 38.0], ["柴油发动机及机组", 10.0], ["材料销售", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 206.3, "ret_prev2_year": -2.2, "ret_ytd": 1.4, "ret_pivot": 345.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": -8.8, "ret_120": 8.8, "ret_250": 85.8, "mdd_250": -36.1, "vol_250": 53.8, "pos_52w": 78.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 60, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 272.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 86%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -9% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "华丰股份:PE 比行业中位高 222.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.9个百分点。"]}}